2016 - 2020

Open access papers are marked with *

*August, T., Fox, R., Roy, D.B. & Pocock, M.J.O. 2020. Data-derived metrics describing the behaviour of field-based citizen scientists provide insights for project design and modelling bias. Scientific Reports 10, 11009.

*Baker, D., Barrett, S., Beale, C.M., Crawford, T.J., Ellis, S., Gullett, T., Mayhew, P.J., Parsons, M.S., Relf, P., Robertson, P., Small, J. & Wainwright, D. 2016. Decline of a rare moth at its last known English site: causes and lessons for conservation. PLoS One 11, e0157423. News story

*Banza, P., Macgregor, C.J., Belo, A.D.F., Fox, R., Pocock, M.J.O. & Evans, D.M. 2019. Wildfire alters the structure and seasonal dynamics of Mediterranean nocturnal pollen transport networks. Functional Ecology 33, 1882-1892.

*Bell, J.R., Botham, M.S., Henrys, P.A., Leech, D.I., Pearce-Higgins, J.W., Shortall, C.R., Brereton, T.M., Pickup, J. & Thackeray, S.J. 2019. Spatial and habitat variation in aphid, butterfly, moth and bird phenologies over the last half century. Global Change Biology 25, 1982-1994.

*Boyes, D.H., Fox, R., Shortall, C.R. & Whittaker R.J. 2019. Bucking the trend: the diversity of Anthropocene ‘winners’ among British moths. Frontiers of Biogeography 11, e43862.

*Burns, F., Eaton, M.A., Barlow, K.E., Beckmann, B.C., Brereton, T., Brooks, D.R., Brown, P.M., Al Fulaij, N., Gent, T. & Henderson, I. 2016. Agricultural management and climatic change are the major drivers of biodiversity change in the UK. PloS One 11, e0151595.

Burns, F., Eaton, M.A., Hayhow, D.B., Outhwaite, C.L., Al Fulaij, N., August, T.A., Boughey, K.L., Brereton, T., Brown, A., Bullock, D.J., Gent, T., Haysom, K.A., Isaac, N. J.B., Johns, D.G., Macadam, C.R., Mathews, F., Noble, D.G., Powney, G.D., Sims, D.W., Smart, S.M., Stroh, P., Walker, K.J., Webb, J.R., Webb, T.J. & Gregory, R.D. 2018. An assessment of the state of nature in the United Kingdom: A review of findings, methods and impact. Ecological Indicators 94, 226-236.

Clarke, H.E. & Dennis, E.B. 2020. A new method for calculating butterfly abundance trends for small regional areas. Journal of Insect Conservation 24, 779-790.

*Dennis, E.B., Brereton, T.M., Morgan, B.J.T., Fox, R., Shortall, C.R., Prescott, T. & Foster, S. 2019. Trends and indicators for quantifying moth abundance and occupancy in Scotland. Journal of Insect Conservation 23, 369-380.

*Dennis, E.B., Morgan, B.J.T., Brereton, T.M., Roy, D.B. & Fox, R. 2017. Using citizen science butterfly counts to predict species population trends. Conservation Biology 31, 1350-1361. News story

*Dennis, E.B., Morgan, B.J.T., Fox, R., Roy, D.B. & Brereton, T.M. 2019. Functional data analysis of multi-species abundance and occupancy data sets. Ecological Indicators 104, 156-165.

*Dennis, E.B., Morgan, B.J., Freeman, S.N., Brereton, T.M. & Roy, D.B. 2016. A generalized abundance index for seasonal invertebrates. Biometrics 72, 1305-1314.

*Dennis, E.B., Morgan, B.J.T., Freeman, S.N., Ridout, M.S., Brereton, T.M., Fox, R., Powney, G.D. & Roy, D.B. 2017. Efficient occupancy model-fitting for extensive citizen-science data. PLoS ONE 12, e0174433.

*Dennis, E.B., Morgan, B.J., Freeman, S.N., Roy, D.B. & Brereton, T. 2016. Dynamic models for longitudinal butterfly data. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics 21, 1-21.

*Dennis, E.B., Morgan, B.J.T., Roy, D.B. & Brereton, T.M. 2017. Urban indicators for UK butterflies. Ecological Indicators 76, 184-193. News story

*De Palma, A., Dennis, R.L.H., Brereton, T., Leather, S.R. & Oliver, T.H. 2017. Large reorganizations in butterfly communities during an extreme weather event. Ecography 40, 577-585.

*Dyer, R.J., Gillings, S.G., Pywell, R.F., Fox, R., Roy, D.B. & Oliver, T.H. 2017. Developing a biodiversity-based indicator for large-scale environmental assessment: a case study of proposed shale gas extraction sites in Britain. Journal of Applied Ecology 54, 872-882. News story

*Ellis, S., Wainwright, D., Dennis, E.B., Bourn, N.A.D., Bulman, C.R., Hobson, R., Jones, R., Middlebrook, I., Plackett, J., Smith, R.G., Wain, M. & Warren, M.S. 2019. Are habitat changes driving the decline of the UK’s most threatened butterfly: the High Brown Fritillary Argynnis adippe (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae)? Journal of Insect Conservation 23, 351-367.

Elston, D.A., Brewer, M.J., Martay, B., Johnston, A., Henrys, P.A., Bell, J.R., Harrington, R., Monteith, D., Brereton, T.M., Boughey, K.L. & Pearce-Higgins, J.W. 2017 A new approach to modelling the relationship between annual population abundance indices and weather data. Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics 22, 427-445.

*Fox, R., Bourn, N.A.D., Dennis, E.B., Heafield, R.T, Maclean, I.M.D. & Wilson, R.J. 2019. Opinions of citizen scientists on open access to UK butterfly and moth occurrence data. Biodiversity and Conservation 28, 3321-3341.

*Fox, R., Harrower C.A., Bell, J.R., Shortall, C.R., Middlebrook, I. & Wilson, R.J. 2019. Insect population trends and the IUCN Red List process. Journal of Insect Conservation 23, 269-278. News story

Franks, S.E., Pearce-Higgins, J.W., Atkinson, S., Bell, J.R., Botham, M.S., Brereton, T.M., Harrington, R. & Leech, D.I. 2018. The sensitivity of breeding songbirds to changes in seasonal timing is linked to population change but cannot be directly attributed to the effects of trophic asynchrony on productivity. Global Change Biology 24, 957-971.

*Greenwell, M.P., Brereton, T., Day, J.C., Roy, D.B. & Oliver, T.H. 2019. Predicting resilience of ecosystem functioning from co‐varying species' responses to environmental change. Ecology and Evolution 9, 11775-11790.

MacDonald, M.A., Angell, R., Dines, T.D., Dodd, S., Haysom, K.A., Hobson, R., Johnstone, I.G., Matthews, V., Morris, A.J., Parry, R., Shellswell, C.H., Skates, J., Tordoff, G.M. & Wilberforce, E.M. 2019. Have Welsh agri‐environment schemes delivered for focal species? Results from a comprehensive monitoring programme. Journal of Applied Ecology 56, 812-823.

*Macgregor, C.J., Evans, D.M., Fox, R. & Pocock, M.J.O. 2017. The dark side of street lighting: impacts on moths and evidence for the disruption of nocturnal pollen transport. Global Change Biology 23, 697-707. News story

*Macgregor, C.J., Hoare, D.J., Parsons, M.S. & Lewis, O.T. 2017. Host-plant patch qualities and presence of a likely competitor species affect the distribution and abundance of a rare British moth, Cucullia lychnitis. Journal of Insect Conservation 21, 137-146.

Macgregor, C.J., Kitson, J.J.N., Fox, R., Hahn, C., Lunt, D.H., Pocock, M.J.O. & Evans, D.M. 2019. Construction, validation, and application of nocturnal pollen transport networks in an agro-ecosystem: a comparison using light microscopy and DNA metabarcoding. Ecological Entomology 44, 17-29. News story

*Macgregor, C.J., Pocock, M.J.O., Fox, R. & Evans, D.M. 2019. Effects of street lighting technologies on the success and quality of pollination in a nocturnally pollinated plant. Ecosphere 10, e02550.

*Macgregor, C.J., Thomas, C.D., Roy, D.B., Beaumont, M.A., Bell, J.R., Brereton, T., Bridle, J.R., Dytham, C., Fox, R., Gotthard, K., Hoffmann, A.A., Martin, G., Middlebrook, I., Nylin, S., Platts, P.J., Rasteiro, R., Saccheri, I.J., Villoutreix, R., Wheat, C.W. & Hill, J.K. 2019. Climate-induced phenology shifts linked to range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year. Nature Communications 10, 4455. News story

Maes, D., Ellis, S., Goffart, K.L., Cruickshanks, K.L., van Swaay, C.A.M., Cors, R., Herremans, M., Swinnen, K.R.R., Wils, C., Verhulst, S., De Bruyn, L., Matthysen, E., O’Riordan, S., Hoare, D.J. & Bourn, N.A.D. 2019. The potential of species distribution modelling for reintroduction projects: the case study of the Chequered Skipper in England. Journal of Insect Conservation 23, 419-431.

Maes, D., Verovnik, R., Wiemers, M., Brosens, D., Beshkov, S., Bonelli, S., Buszko, J., Cantú‑Salazar, L., Cassar, L-F., Collins, S., Dincă, V., Djuric, M., Dušej, G., Elven, H., Franeta, F., Garcia‑Pereira, P., Geryak, Y., Goffart, P., Gór, A., Hiermann, U., Höttinger, H., Huemer, P., Jakšić, P., John, E., Kalivoda, H., Kati, V., Kirkland, P., Komac, B., Kőrösi, A., Kulak, A., Kuussaari, M., L’Hoste, L., Lelo, S., Mestdagh, X., Micevski, N., Mihoci, I., Mihut, S., Monasterio‑León, Y., Morgun, D.V., Munguira, M.L., Murray, T., Stadel Nielsen, P., Ólafsson, E., Õunap, E., Pamperis, L.N., Pavlíčko, A., Pettersson, L.B., Popov, S., Popović, M., Pöyry, J., Prentice, M., Reyserhove, L., Ryrholm, N., Šašić, M., Savenkov, N., Settele, J., Sielezniew, M., Sinev, S., Stefanescu, C., Švitra, G., Tammaru, T., Tiitsaar, A., Tzirkalli, E., Tzortzakaki, O., van Swaay, C.A.M., Lykke Viborg, A., Wynhoff, I.,Zografou, K. & Warren, M.S. 2019. Integrating national Red Lists for prioritising conservation actions for European butterflies. Journal of Insect Conservation 23, 301-330.

Martay, B., Brewer, M.J., Elston, D.A., Bell, J.R., Harrington, R., Brereton, T.M., Barlow, K.E., Botham, M.S. & Pearce-Higgins, J.W. 2017. Impacts of climate change on national biodiversity population trends. Ecography 40, 1139-1151.

Martay, B., Monteith, D., Brewer, M., Brereton, T., Shortall, C. & Pearce-Higgins, J. 2016. An indicator highlights seasonal variation in the response of Lepidoptera communities to warming. Ecological Indicators 68, 126-133.

*Maskell, L.C., Botham, M., Henrys, P., Jarvis, S., Maxwell, D., Robinson, D.A., Rowland, C.S., Siriwardena, G., Smart, S., Skates, J., Tebbs, E.J., Tordoff, G.M. & Emmett, B.A. 2019. Exploring relationships between land-use intensity, habitat heterogeneity and biodiversity to identify and monitor areas of High Nature Value farming. Biological Conservation 231, 30-38.

*Mason, S.C., Hill, J.K., Thomas, C.D., Powney, G.D., Fox, R., Brereton, T. & Oliver, T.H. 2018. Population variability in species can be deduced from opportunistic citizen science records: a case study using British butterflies. Insect Conservation and Diversity 11, 131-142. 

*McDermott Long, O., Warren, R., Price, J., Brereton, T.M., Botham, M.S. & Franco, A.M.A. 2017. Sensitivity of UK butterflies to local climatic extremes: which life stages are most at risk? Journal of Animal Ecology 86, 108-116. News story

Middlebrook, I., Hardy, P.B., Botham, M.S. & Dennis R.L.H. 2019. The importance of unique populations for conservation: the case of the Great Orme’s Head grayling butterfly Hipparchia semele (Linnaeus, 1758) (Lepidoptera: Satyrinae). Journal of Insect Conservation 23, 381-391.

*Mills, S.C., Oliver, T.H., Bradbury, R.B., Gregory, R.D., Brereton, T., Kühn, E., Kuussaari, M., Musche, M., Roy, D.B., Schmucki, R., Stefanescu, C., van Swaay, C. & Evans, K.L. 2017. European butterfly populations vary in sensitivity to weather across their geographical ranges. Global Ecology and Biogeography 26, 1374-1385.

*Montgomery, G.A., Dunn, R.R., Fox, R., Jongejans, E., Leather, S.R., Saunders, M.E., Shortall, C.R., Tingley, M.W. & Wagner, D.L. 2020. Is the insect apocalypse upon us? How to find out. Biological Conservation 241, 108327.

*Norberg, A., Abrego, N.,  Blanchet, F.G., Adler, F.R., Anderson, B.J., Anttila, J., Araújo, M.B., Dallas, T., Dunson, D., Elith, J., Foster, S.D., Fox, R., Franklin, J., Godsoe, W., Guisan, A., O’Hara, B., Hill, N.A., Holt, R.D., Hui, F.K.C., Husby, M., Kålås, J.A., Lehikoinen, A., Luoto, M., Mod, H.K., Newell, G., Renner, I., Roslin, T., Soininen, J., Thuiller, W., Vanhatalo, J., Warton, D., White, M.,  Zimmermann, N.E., Gravel, D. & Ovaskainen, O. 2019. A comprehensive evaluation of predictive performance of 33 species distribution models at species and community levels. Ecological Monographs 89, e01370.

*Oliver, T.H., Gillings, S., Pearce-Higgins, J.W., Brereton, T., Crick, H.Q.P., Duffield, S.J., Morecroft, M.D. & Roy, D.B. 2017. Large extents of intensive land use limit community reorganization during climate warming. Global Change Biology 23, 2272-2283. News story

*Outhwaite, C.L., Powney, G.D., August, T.A., Chandler, R.E., Rorke, S., Pescott, O.L., Harvey, M., Roy, H.E., Fox, R., Roy, D.B., Alexander, K., Ball, S., Bantock, T., Barber, T., Beckmann, B.C., Cook, T., Flanagan, J., Fowles, A., Hammond, P., Harvey, P., Hepper, D., Hubble, D., Kramer, J., Lee, P., MacAdam, C., Morris, R., Norris, A., Palmer, S., Plant, C.W., Simkin, J., Stubbs, A., Sutton, P., Telfer, M., Wallace, I. & Isaac, N.J.B. 2019. Annual estimates of occupancy of bryophytes, lichens and invertebrates in the UK, 1970–2015. Scientific Data 6, 259.

*Palmer, G., Platts, P.J., Brereton, T., Chapman, J.W., Dytham, C., Fox, R., Pearce-Higgins, J.W., Roy, D.B., Hill, J.K. & Thomas, C.D. 2017. Climate change, climatic variation and extreme biological responses. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 372, 20160144.

Pearce-Higgins, J.W., Baillie, S.R., Boughey K., Bourn, N.A.D, Foppen, R.P.B., Gillings, S., Gregory, R.D., Hunt, T., Jiguet, F., Lehikoinen, A., Musgrove, A.J., Robinson, R.A., Roy, D.B., Siriwardena, G.M., Walker, K.J. & Wilson, J.D. 2018. Overcoming the challenges of public data archiving for citizen science biodiversity recording and monitoring schemes. Journal of Applied Ecology 55, 2544-2551.

Pearce-Higgins, J.W., Beale, C.M., Oliver, T.H., August, T.A., Carroll, M., Massimino, D., Ockendon, N., Savage, J., Wheatley, C.J., Ausden, M.A., Bradbury, R.B., Duffield, S.J., Macgregor, N.A., McClean, C.J., Morecroft, M.D., Thomas, C.D., Watts, O., Beckmann, B.C., Fox, R., Roy, H.E., Sutton, P.G., Walker, K.J. & Crick, H.Q.P. 2017. A national-scale assessment of climate change impacts on species: assessing the balance of risks and opportunities for multiple taxa. Biological Conservation 213, 124-134.

Pellissier, V., Schmucki, R., Pe'er, G., Aunins, A., Brereton, T., Brotons, L., Carnicer, J., Chodkiewicz, T., Chylarecki, P., del Moral, J., Escandell, V., Evans, D., Foppen, R., Harpke, A., Heliölä, J., Herrando, S., Kuussaari, M., Kühn, E., Lehikoinen, A., Lindström, Å., Moshøj, C., Musche, M., Noble, D., Oliver, T., Reif, J., Richard, D., Roy, D., Schweiger, O., Settele, J., Stefanescu, C., Teufelbauer, N., Touroult, J., Trautmann, S., van Strien, A., van Swaay, C., van Turnhout, C., Vermouzek, Z., Voříšek, P., Jiguet, F. & Julliard, R. 2020. Effects of Natura 2000 on nontarget bird and butterfly species based on citizen science data. Conservation Biology 34, 666-676.

*Platts, P.J., Mason, S.C., Palmer, G., Hill, J.K., Oliver, T.H., Powney, G.D., Fox, R. & Thomas, C.D. 2019. Habitat availability explains variation in climate-driven range shifts across multiple taxonomic groups. Scientific Reports 9, 15039. News story

Pocock, M.J.O., Roy, H.E., Fox, R., Ellis, W.N. & Botham, M. 2017. Citizen science and invasive alien species: predicting the detection of the oak processionary moth Thaumetopoea processionea by moth recorders. Biological Conservation 208, 146-154.

*Pschera, J. & Warren, J.M. 2018. Microhabitat selection by ovipositing females and pre-diapause larvae of a Welsh population of Euphydryas aurinia (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae). Journal of Insect Conservation 22, 571-579.

Redhead, J.W., Fox, R., Brereton T. & Oliver, T.H. 2016. Assessing species’ habitat associations from occurrence records, standardised monitoring data and expert opinion: A test with British butterflies. Ecological Indicators 62, 271-278.

*Schmucki, R., Pe'er, G., Roy, D.B., Stefanescu, C., Van Swaay, C.A.M., Oliver, T.H., Kuussaari, M., Van Strien, A.J., Ries, L., Settele, J., Musche, M., Carnicer, J., Schweiger, O., Brereton, T.M., Harpke, A., Heliölä, J., Kühn, E. & Julliard, R. 2016. A regionally informed abundance index for supporting integrative analyses across butterfly monitoring schemes. Journal of Applied Ecology 53, 501-510.

Stancă-Moise, C., Brereton, T. & Blaj, R. 2017. The control of the defoliator Lymantra monacha L. populations (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) by making use of pheromone traps in the forest range Miercurea Sibiului (Romania) in the period 2011-2015. Scientific Papers Series Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development 17, 327-331.

Suggitt, A.J., Wilson, R.J., Isaac, N.J.B., Beale, C.M., Auffret, A.G., August, T., Bennie, J.J., Crick, H.Q.P., Duffield, S., Fox, R., Hopkins, J.J., Macgregor, N.A., Morecroft, M.D., Walker, K.J. & Maclean, I.M.D. 2018. Extinction risk from climate change is reduced by microclimatic buffering. Nature Climate Change 8, 713-717. News story

*Sullivan, M.J.P., Pearce-Higgins, J.W., Newson, S.E., Scholefield, P., Brereton, T. & Oliver, T.H. 2017. A national-scale model of linear features improves predictions of farmland biodiversity. Journal of Applied Ecology 54, 1776-1784.

Thackeray, S.J., Helaouet, P., Johns, D.G., Jones, I.D., Bacon, P.J., Brereton, T.M., Carvalho, L., Clutton-Brock, T.H., Duck, C., Edwards, M., Elliott, J.M., Hall, S.J.G., Harrington, R., Pearce-Higgins, J.W., Pemberton, J.M., Sparks, T.H., Thompson, P.M., White, I., Winfield, I.J., Henrys, P.A., Hemming, D., Leech, D.I., Bell, J.R., Botham, M.S., Burthe, S., Mackay, E.B., Massimino, D., Høye, T.T., Kruuk, L.E.B., Wanless, S. & Atkinson, S. 2016. Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels. Nature 535, 241-245.